Model Peramalan Kebutuhan SDM Berbasis Beban Kerja, Kompetensi, dan Skenario Perubahan Organisasi

HR Needs Forecasting Model Based on Workload, Competencies, and Organizational Change Scenarios

Abstract

Human resource (HR) forecasting often emphasizes headcount even though workload, productivity, and skill requirements change simultaneously. This article develops a conceptual framework that integrates these three dimensions with scenario analysis. It employs a conceptual review of human resource management and workforce planning literature, followed by the specification of indicators, decision stages, and an illustrative numerical simulation. No primary data were collected and no empirical hypotheses were tested. The proposed framework estimates workforce requirements from projected activity volumes and standard processing time, adjusted for effective working hours and productivity changes. Competency demand is assessed separately so that numerical workforce balance is not mistaken for adequate capabilities. A three-scenario illustration demonstrates how variations in service demand and operational efficiency lead to different staffing estimates. The framework then connects capacity estimates and skill inventories to potential interventions, including employee development, internal mobility, and external recruitment. The principal contribution is an integrated decision logic that distinguishes workforce quantity from workforce capability while explicitly acknowledging uncertainty. Organizations may use this approach to improve the transparency and consistency of staffing decisions, provided that assumptions, data quality, and forecasting errors are regularly reviewed. The framework requires empirical validation before claims about predictive performance can be established.